Eating out is increasingly becoming a luxury for the rich, not the poor.
That's according to an eye-opening industry analysis just out from NPD Group, the research specialist, which shows that even as fast-food visits were down 1% for the 12-month period ending in June, visits to fine-dining restaurants were up 3% during the same period.
Even as restaurants such as McDonald's are losing customers who are feeling the pinch of the tough economy, independent, white-tablecloth restaurants are enjoying a resurgence of business from those with higher incomes.
But is this good news — or bad news for the restaurant industry? That depends on whom you ask. After all, higher-income households represent the majority of spending in the industry, notes Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of research at the National Restaurant Association.
Even then, almost 80% of all restaurant visits are to fast-food restaurants or eateries where average spending is less than $10 per check, while just 1% of all restaurant visits are to fine-dining establishments where the check averages are $40 or higher, reports NPD
"This is real," says Bonnie Riggs, restaurant industry analyst at NPD, in a phone interview. "This is the type of thing that keeps restaurant executives up at night. The middle class is shrinking."
That shrinking middle class was documented earlier this year by a Pew Research Center study, which showed that the percentage of people who classified themselves as middle class had shrunk to 44% in 2014 from 53% in 2008. At the same time, the study showed, those who classified themselves as lower- or lower-middle class has risen to 40% in 2014 vs. 25% in 2008.
Low-income consumers, who are heavier users of quick-service restaurants, were most adversely affected by the recession and have less discretionary income to spend on dining out. With low-income visit cutbacks and not enough fine-dining traffic to make up for traffic declines, restaurant operators will need to appeal to the middle class to fill the gap, says Riggs.
But executives from the restaurant trade group say there's a ray of light in the numbers.
"Growth in the number of higher-income households may be a positive sign for restaurants, as those households represent the majority of spending in the industry," says Riehle, in an e-mail.
According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, households with incomes of $100,000 or higher are responsible for 36% of the total spending on food away from home, while households with incomes between $70,000 and $99,999 account for 18% of industry spending.
The economic outlook remains mixed for restaurant operators, says Riehle — with 41% reporting an increase in customer traffic levels between July 2013 and July 2014. "Restaurateurs remain generally optimistic about sales growth in the months ahead," he says.
But most of that growth is expected to come from the top of the food chain, not the bottom.