Wages Q&A: What Do McDonald’s, Wal-Mart and Target Pay Raises Mean for the Economy?
Time for a raise? Large U.S. companies, including McDonald’s, Wal-Mart and Target, have increased wages for their lowest-paid workers and more than half of states have raised the minimum wage. Should other large employers and the federal government follow suit? What effect will higher wages have on businesses, workers and consumers? Economics reporter Eric Morath answered your questions in a Q&A on Facebook. Below are lightly edited excerpts.
Q: Will retailers who increase employees’ wages decrease their number of employees?
A: Some economists think that could be the case. University of Michigan economistDonald Grimes told me corporations setting a de facto minimum wage could result insimilar projected job losses as an increase to the federal minimum wage–about 500,000 jobs lost. Still, the restaurant industry is growing, so it hard to imagine total employment in the sector would shrink.
Q: Will better pay for a lowly McDonald’s employee really help the economy overall?
A: This chart, from November, shows leisure and hospitality (including restaurants) has been among the fastest growing sectors during the economic expansion. If workers in that sector receive higher pay, they should help drive stronger consumer spending. About one in 12 Americans work in food service.
Q: Who will pay for these raises? Customers through higher prices.
A: Labor is a large cost for restaurants. When the minimum wage increased in San Jose, a pizza chain there raised prices 4%. But the owner of that chain told us better spending power among area consumers helped offset any losses.
Q: What impact will this have on McDonald’s relationship with their franchisees?
A: That’s a very interesting question. McDonald’s has very publicly declared $10 an hour should be the starting rate for fast-food employees by next year. That would seem to give workers some leverage against franchise owners—especially owners that compete for labor with company-owned stores.
Q: More money in a paycheck, means more shopping, paying bills, maybe even saving something!
A: And Americans are saving more. The personal saving rate rose to 5.8% in February, the highest level in more than two years. Economists largely attribute that to saving at the gas pump, but slightly better wage growth could also be playing a role.
Q: Bad precedent as small businesses cannot sustain to keep up.
A: I see your point, but McDonald’s and Wal-Mart both currently pay below the average in their industry. So presumably, many smaller businesses offer better pay. A chart below shows the average hourly wage for several major industries.
Q: Are executives, politicians and celebrities the select few who should live comfortably in America?
A: One interesting way to think about this is how much fast food can a fast-food worker buy at minimum-wage pay. In 1981, a minimum-wage worker could trade an hour’s pay—$3.35—for 12 White Castle hamburgers, and receive 23 cents back in change. At today’s federal minimum hourly wage—$7.25—the worker could buy 10.
Q: My take on this issue is if you increase your hourly rate, doesn’t that hurt your profit margin in the long run? It wouldn’t be good for businesses that have a lot of input cost. Sorry, but these jobs are not meant to support a family. Even I caught on to this very quickly when I worked a low-paying job. I started to go to trade school and now I make more money and more happy that I achieved something in my life.
A: In 2013, 35.5% of minimum wage employees worked full time, compared with 72.9% of all hourly workers. So, yes, likely many minimum-wage workers aren’t the sole bread winners in their households. But minimum-wage earners are disproportionately women and minorities. That’s a reason why President Obama says raising the minimum wage would “helps families make ends meet.”
Q: McDonald’s did not raise wages. Only 10 percent will get raises, which means nothing. Only a PR move.
A: McDonald’s says it will raise wages for hourly employees at company-owned stores, but 90% of McDonald’s stores in the U.S. are operated by franchises. What is happening, though, is that fast-food workers across the board are seeing wages increase more quickly than the rest of the economy. Albeit, they are among the lowest-paid workers of any occupation.
I agree the public perception is playing a role here. This is the first time McDonald’s has made an across-the-board move on wages outside of federal wage increases. That probably suggests worker demands and protests are having some effect. The same may be true for Wal-Mart.
I will say McDonald’s officials said protests weren’t a factor in its decision.
Q: If a burger-flipper keeps asking for more money, then I’d replace him with a robot.
A: Food service might be one of the areas that is most difficult to replace workers with automation. That’s likely why almost half of minimum-wage workers are in that field.
Sheetz, a gas station and convenience store on the East Coast, has replaced some counter staff with touch screens. They’ve moved those workers into positions that make larger profits, like preparing cappuccinos.
Q: The effect is inflation. Everyone ends up back where they started except many no longer qualify for poverty benefits, and those on fixed incomes get screwed.
A: Higher labor costs certainly can contribute to inflation. But keep in mind that inflation is historically weak right now, thanks to a fall in gasoline prices.
Q: Actually, since the minimum wage is so low in many states, raising it up to around $10 universally will not cause inflation, and will in fact benefit the economy. However, I do agree that raising the minimum wage to $15 might have unintended consequences.
A: The minimum wage in many states is heading to $10 an hour or higher. The pay floor in Massachusetts will be $11 by 2017.
Q: A rising ride lifts all ships. If you raise wages for low-skilled jobs without doing the same for higher-skilled jobs, you’ve just effectively devalued higher-skilled jobs.
A: We are at an unusual point when wages are growing more swiftly at the bottom end of the pay scale. Economic theory would suggest that means there is greater demand for those workers. One possible reason is that higher-skilled workers were stuck in low-wage jobs, and are now returning to better-paying work, cutting the pool of workers willing to take a restaurant or retail job.
Thanks everyone for the great questions. Please continue to follow our coverage in The Wall Street Journal and on the Real Time Economics blog
No comments:
Post a Comment