Wall Street analysts cite concerns over Whole Foods strategies
Wall Street analysts came down hard Thursday on some of the strategies Whole Foods Market is pursuing after listening to management discuss first-quarter results a day earlier.
Scott Mushkin, managing director for Wolfe Research, called several management decisions “a risky strategy,” explaining, “With a large swath of future store openings and a highly cyclical business for the food-at-home channel, we find these decisions to be unwise.”
Regarding plans to begin rolling out the 365 format, he said, “Whole Foods is tilting its growth towards an unproven, discount format that appears to be directly aimed at a strong competitor, Trader Joe’s. Trader Joe’s has been in business for roughly a half century, does the discount treasure-hunt format exceptionally well, and is private, meaning it doesn’t have to answer to public equity investors each quarter.”
Mushkin said the decision to reduce store labor to fund price investments is already having a negative impact on store conditions, illustrating his research note with a photo of a spotty egg display at Whole Foods’ flagship store in New York.
He also was critical of the Austin, Texas-based company’s decision to maintain earnings by buying back stock.
Acknowledging that Whole Foods has created “an outstanding company and brand over the years and recognized the pure foods trend well ahead of virtually everyone else, it’s hard not to look at the current decisions by the company as incredibly risky for all stakeholders,” Mushkin said.
Meredith Adler, managing director for Barclays Capital, also expressed concerns about the 365 format.
She said she likes the idea that the company plans to use the Whole Foods banner in denser urban areas for large stores full of theater and excitement and use the 365 banner in smaller markets.
However, she said, “Whole Foods may simply be fixing a prior bad strategy, and we still wish it would test the 365 format before committing itself to new leases.”
The company said during the call it has 13 leases signed, with the first three 365 stores set to open in Silver Lake, Calif., in May, Lake Oswego, Ore., in July and Bellevue, Wash., in August.
Other analysts were particularly concerned with the chain’s weak comparable-store sales, which fell 1.8% in the first quarter ended Jan. 17 and were down 2.8% in the first three weeks of the second quarter.
Kelly Bania, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets, cited concerns over the deteriorating comps, declining gross margins as the company accelerates price investments and promotions and a slower-than-expected rollout of the company’s affinity program.
“We continue to see risk that comps may not re-accelerate in 2016, despite easier comparisons, and that comps remain weak and volatile due to ongoing competitive pressures,” she said.
He also said targeted promotional activity and the chain's new digital coupon initiative “should have a positive effect on trends, but we will likely not see positive comps until the back half.”
William Kirk, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, said he remains bullish on Whole Foods’ ability to reestablish its competitive advantages, though he said that could take time.
“Our concern remains around the competitive encroachment by conventional grocers, [who] have been a major headwind to comparable store sales,” he said. “For Whole Foods, increasing spending is the only way to combat competitive headwinds.
“We believe this … puts a floor on Whole Foods as the company cuts costs, innovates more quickly, invests in prices, increases marketing, improves digital capabilities, rolls out tech platforms, launches 365 stores, moderates square-footage growth and maintains culture — a long, expensive but ultimately necessary list.”
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