These angry few have taken to the internet, showing off red seasonal Starbucks cups with ‘Merry Christmas’ scrawled on the sides in protest of the Seattle chain’s role in the liberal ‘war on Christmas’.
Of course, Starbucks still wins this round. Whether furious at perceived political correctness or not, these protesters are still buying drinks from the $91 billion (market cap) company. And as it’s early November, there’s a strong chance their red cups are filled with the chain’s most popular limited-edition drink, the ubiquitous pumpkin spice latte.
Starbucks launched the PSL, as it’s known to fans and detractors alike, in 2003. In the ensuing decade, the coffee giant sold 200 million of the seasonal drinks, which go on sale around Labor Day and herald the beginning of autumn to many.
The company doesn’t break out sales of specific drinks, but Forbes estimates that Starbucks will make in the region of $100 million in revenues from pumpkin spice lattes this fall.
The scarcity of the drink fuels its popularity, and Starbucks has always made the most of its abbreviated marketing campaign for the pumpkin spice latte. The PSL has its own Twitter account with over 120,000 followers and a fan club called the Orange Sleeve Society for hardcore devotees.The company runs competitions, pitting PSL lovers against each other for the prize of early access to the calorific treat in late August.
Starbucks will make around $100 million in pumpkin spice latte sales this fall, per Forbes' calculations.
Starbucks will make around $100 million in pumpkin spice latte sales this fall, per Forbes’ calculations.
Starbucks has a great reason to encourage pumpkin spice fandom: on average, PSL drinkers spend more in each transaction. Recent data from market research firm NPD shows the average check for a pumpkin spice latte buyer in fall and winter 2014 was $7.81, compared with $6.67 for non-buyers.
It isn’t just Starbucks benefiting from the PSL craze either (or McDonald MCD -0.89%, or Tim Hortons , or any number of cafes now serving their take on the drink). Which each passing year, annual sales of pumpkin-flavored products are snowballing.
Data from Nielsen shows that total sales of pumpkin-flavored food, personal and household goods in supermarkets and convenience stores across the U.S. are up almost 80% since 2011, to over $360 million in 2015.
Add in our estimate of $100 million in Starbucks PSL revenue, and millions more in sales of similar beverages at McDonald’s, Dunkin’ Donuts, Peets and other cafes, and Forbes pegs the size of this growing pumpkin spice economy — annual sales of pumpkin-flavored food, drinks and novelties — at more than $500 million this year.
More brands are getting in on the game, releasing versions of existing products with a pumpkin flavor profile. Nielsen’s data shows that sales of pumpkin yogurt are up more than 320% year-on-year, with pumpkin cereal up over 180%.
It isn’t just at home or at Starbucks that folks are looking to enjoy all thinks pumpkin. Data from Mintel Menu Insights shows that the instances of pumpkin as a flavor on restaurant menus is up 21% since 2012. While just over half of this growth is in baked goods, statistics show we like everything from dressings (20% increase) and dips (6% increase) with a pumpkin flavor.
The next big growth market for the once-humble pumpkin? Beer, according to Mintel Menu Insights. Data shows pumpkin as a beer flavor accounts for 90% of the ingredient’s growth on beverage menus. (Compare that with 5% for smoothies).
Right now, per data from market research firm IRI, the seasonal craft beer market makes up some 15% to 25% of the almost $20 billion craft beer market.
This is a broad category, encompassing beers produced for all four calendar-based seasons, so it certainly isn’t all pumpkin; Forbes hasn’t included beer sales in our market size calculation for lack of reliable data.
But you can certainly expect to see more pumpkin-flavored beer produced and sold next autumn. The trend is only on the upswing.