Here's how Publix could fall prey to Walmart, Amazon and Kroger in 2016

Jan 5, 2016, 7:15am EST

Ashley Gurbal KritzerReporterTampa Bay Business Journal

Publix Super Markets Inc. is poised to capitalize on most of the top grocery trends of 2016 — but there's one key area where it could find itself playing catch-up to some of its toughest competitors.

Grocery analyst John Karolefski, Cleveland-based publisher of GroceryStories.com, has revealed his top industry trends for the year. Expect to see more entertaining in stores — think wine tastings, cooking demonstrations and food samples — along with more cafes where customers can eat in the stores.

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Publix Super Markets Inc.'s GreenWise store in South Tampa

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Publix already uses its Aprons brand — which encompasses its cooking schools, Simple Meals program, recipe development and event planning services — as a way to engage customers, especially millennials, in some of its stores. Seventy of its more than 1,100 stores have specialty cheese shops, where customers can sample cheese and learn the stories behind each variety.

But online shopping and digital engagement will be huge in 2016, Karolefski said — and that's where Publix may lag some of its competitors."The two big elephants in the room are Amazon and Walmart, both of whom are testing online grocery shopping," Karolefski said in a phone interview Monday. "Both have the resources, infrastructure and the national footprint to dominate online grocery shopping if they want to. Should they do that, it will threaten every grocer in the country, and all of them are going to test online grocery shopping."

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Walmart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) are particularly big potential threats to Publix in its hometown of Central Florida. Amazon has two 1 million-square-foot warehouses here, in Lakeland and Ruskin. After Publix, Walmart controls the majority of grocery market share in Central Florida. It also has a grocery distribution center in Winter Haven and is under construction on a 2 million-square-foot e-commerce fulfillment center in Winter Haven.

In October, Walmart rolled out online grocery ordering at a select number of stores in Tampa.

Publix was a pioneer of online grocery shopping, testing the concept in the late 1990s. While it failed to be as profitable as the company would have liked, Publix President Todd Jones has said the idea is " always looking" at the service.

The Lakeland-based grocer in recent years has rolled out some online ordering options for bakery cakes and deli items. It's also offered digital coupons for years.

But one of its biggest competitors, Cincinnati-based Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR), is going well beyond online ordering in some of its stores. Kroger is one of Publix's biggest competitors, in metro Atlanta and the Carolinas.

Kroger has a service called Scan Bag Go, in which customers use a handheld device to scan their items as they shop. The device tallies up the customer's total, instead of having a cashier scan each item. Launched in a handful of stores in 2011, Kroger expanded Scan Bag Go in greater Cincinnati in November 2015.

While Publix tops several consumer survey reports nationwide, Karolefski said, 2016 may be the year it puts more of an emphasis on technology.

"If its competitors get big on this and it gains favor with consumers, they may have to," he said.