Each year my team of futurists puts together a list of big trends for the coming year. We analyze how right we were with our “15 for 2015” and compile our “16 for 2016” (they must be dreading 2030). I’m relieved to see our methods are working; in 2015 we were right on the money – and money was one of the major things to change.
2015 saw Goldman Sachs as the first financial juggernaut to invest in Bitcoin, and I started to pay my daily London commute with Apple AAPL +0.00%Pay on my iWatch, along with 40% of Londoners now using contactless payments for the tube; Fintech has now entered a revolution.
We also backed autonomous machines, and the US airspace applications for drones have gone from 1 in 2014 to 50 per week as we stand today (source FAA), leading to a rapid need for “drone-ports,” where I’m sure Amazon will be keen to set up a duty-free shop. Other trends we highlighted included B2B ecommerce now rising at a rate twice as fast as B2C commerce did; “women as a customer” as all industries tackle diversity head on; and one of my personal favorites, and a brave one, was policymakers and diplomats globally coming together on trade and important policies like climate change. It was good to see that we are learning to compromise, as we saw with the climate change agreement.
Read our 2015 predictions and judge for yourself.
So what is around the corner in the New Year? The top 16 trends below summarize our predictions for the coming year. There are, as expected, several common threads, but if you cluster them, one common theme emerges around cognitive and artificial technology. I firmly believe that we will see in 2016 some major leaps made in cognitive technologies and applications, which will make us think harder about our society. What will happen if 2 million truck drivers lose their jobs as these trucks become autonomous or if robots take over the job of window cleaners or our teachers in schools? Although I don’t expect teachers to lose their jobs in 2016, we will see the first real examples of what a cognitive world could mean to us. A question you may ask yourself in 2016 is, “Will my job be ‘uberized’?”
We would love to hear your comments on whether you agree/disagree with the following predictions.
  1. Fintech Revolution: The future seems paved with fintech gold. Hailed as “disrupters,” small fintech firms offering products and solutions ranging from mobile payments to crowdfunding are cropping up. Fintech firms will diversify the finance industry, and innovative banks will also benefit by incorporating new and cutting-edge ideas for customers. With the hype of fintech reaching deafening levels in 2015, and investments in the space witnessing 2-3X increases, the sector will become much more competitive in 2016.
  2. Corporate Social Responsibility as a Differentiator: When a company is near the top of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index one week and then caught with software to flaunt environmental regulations the next , the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR ) is challenged. The impact on VW and spotlight on regulation aside, 2016 will bring a new meaning to CSR, and many companies will use it to set themselves apart.
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  3. Augmented Reality Goes Mainstream: 2016 will be a year of major content development for augmented and virtual reality. We will see many launches and announcements of Oculus Rift-type products and their applications. I am told it will change the gaming industry and will become a money spinner once it is used in the porn industry. 
  4. Millennial Power: Millennials have come of age and are big business. As global Millennials enter the 16-35 age range, they are entering a new phcrowdase of purchasing power. At the low end, the traditional first buys, such as cars, are slowly being replaced by Uber; at the high end, they are now considering buying a house or a car.
  5. The World Agrees: I believe this trend will continue from where we left off in 2015 with policymakers and diplomats agreeing to some major breakthrough deals. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) could be one of them as Obama tries to leave a legacy of his presidency.
  6. The Dragon Stumbles and the Elephant Runs: In 2016, China will enter its slowest growth phase in two decades as GDP growth forecasts in China fall below 7%. India is on a strong growth path, benefitting from recent policy reforms, its “Made in India” campaign, a consequent pickup in investment, and lower commodity prices. The Indian domestic demand is set to remain bullish and inflation is expected to fall. In 2016, India is expected to register 7.5% growth and cross that of China.
  7. Everything is ‘Uberized’: Businesses will follow consumers into the sharing economy. Corporate car- and home-sharing will lead the way, with Uber, Skype, and Airbnb set to launch corporate services. Companies will leverage each other’s assets to avoid diseconomies of scale, with an aim to operate at 100% capacity and 0% idle time.
  8. Women as the Next Frontier of Growth: Countries, organizations and industries are looking to capitalize on the gender dividend. Next year will see an increase in aggressive policies by governments and boards to raise their diversity ranking in a bid to boost both GDP and the bottom line. 2016 will throw up examples of gender diversity as a profit booster and at the same time help change corporate culture, like at VW.
  9. Blockchain Experts for Hire: Pioneers in the financial services industry are experimenting with how blockchains (a digital ledger) could be used for transaction clearing, back-office functions and cross-border payments. Blockchains could replace existing systems and streamline banking processes. The risk is having to speak to the new in-house blockchain expert at next year’s Christmas party.
  10. The Next 11: Recent turmoil across the BRICS regions is shifting companies’ focus to newly emerging hotspots such as Mexico, Vietnam, and Nigeria. Those economies have started to exhibit strong economic, technological, and social growth and are likely to contribute 20% more to the global GDP than in the past. Apart from these countries, I would put my money on Indonesia, Romania, Algeria, and some other selected countries in Asia and Africa.
  11. China-Russian Alliance: This new friendship could disrupt the current world trade order through currency swaps and possible gas lines. A challenge to existing superpowers, the world waits to see exactly how this agreement will manifest in formal policy. Europe could be most affected as the recession in Russia brings these two nations closer to each other and China finances some critical infrastructure routes like the old silk route and the Trans-Siberian railroad link.
  12. There is no App for That: Intelligent solutions such as Siri and Cortana leveraging artificial intelligence are quelling our past hunger for apps on our connected devices. 2016 will see businesses increasingly adapt these platforms for B2C and B2B marketing purposes.
  13. Cyber Battle Good vs. Evil: Next year will see a major showdown between the global community of cyber criminals and a rapidly forming team of big business and governments. Crime has been focused on the financial services sector, where the prize is high, but as more industries become connected – such as healthcare – an attack is more likely. The good news is policymakers will draft new cyber security and data protections laws, with the US expected to lead in development of cyber laws and Europe on data protection.
  14. What’s my incentive? Consumers will accept incentives to purchase certain items or exhibit certain behaviours. Examples include paying consumers $500 per month to choose cheaper pharmacy options, rewarding consumers for using specific search engines, or entering account holders into a lottery based on how much money they save (in a bid to increase liquidity in banks).
  15. Online Marketplaces outpace Traditional Retail: Big data and mobile-based apps and platforms present myriad opportunities for marketplace deliveries and solutions. 2016 will see the growth of marketplace-as-a-service in more industries, such as logistics and healthcare, where traditional supplier networks once dominated.
  16. A Jobless Future? Hollowing out of the middle class as a result of mechanization will be a key topic for governments as they become concerned about the impact of cognitive technologies on our society. Focus on automation will initiate a polarizing shift in employment from the standpoint of job standards and wage distribution.